Step six
The thesis under test is: modeled enterprise value is at least the target enterprise value, with every input and source version frozen as they are now. Each test below moves one thing in the direction that hurts and reports the nearest crossing.
Modeled enterprise value
$1,997.0m
Base model plus initiative
Target
$2,243.2m
Status
fails
-$246.2m against target
This thesis already fails. This thesis already fails at the stated assumptions. The existing shortfall is shown before any stress test is applied.
Modeled $1,997.0m against a target of $2,243.2m, a shortfall of $246.2m. Close that before stress testing anything.
This thesis already fails. This thesis already fails at the stated assumptions. The existing shortfall is shown before any stress test is applied.
Modeled $1,997.0m against a target of $2,243.2m, a shortfall of $246.2m. Close that before stress testing anything.
This thesis already fails. This thesis already fails at the stated assumptions. The existing shortfall is shown before any stress test is applied.
Modeled $1,997.0m against a target of $2,243.2m, a shortfall of $246.2m. Close that before stress testing anything.
This thesis already fails. This thesis already fails at the stated assumptions. The existing shortfall is shown before any stress test is applied.
Modeled $1,997.0m against a target of $2,243.2m, a shortfall of $246.2m. Close that before stress testing anything.
This thesis already fails. This thesis already fails at the stated assumptions. The existing shortfall is shown before any stress test is applied.
Modeled $1,997.0m against a target of $2,243.2m, a shortfall of $246.2m. Close that before stress testing anything.
Every cell is an explicit combination inside the declared range. There is no probability, no confidence interval and no simulation here, because none has been specified.
| margin \ growth | -1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0% | -$1,099m fails | -$1,028m fails | -$954m fails | -$876m fails | -$793m fails | -$706m fails | -$614m fails | -$517m fails | -$415m fails |
| 13.3% | -$995m fails | -$917m fails | -$835m fails | -$748m fails | -$657m fails | -$560m fails | -$458m fails | -$350m fails | -$237m fails |
| 14.5% | -$891m fails | -$806m fails | -$716m fails | -$620m fails | -$520m fails | -$414m fails | -$302m fails | -$184m fails | -$59m fails |
| 15.8% | -$788m fails | -$695m fails | -$596m fails | -$493m fails | -$383m fails | -$267m fails | -$145m fails | -$17m fails | $119m holds |
| 17.0% | -$684m fails | -$584m fails | -$477m fails | -$365m fails | -$246m fails | -$121m fails | $11m holds | $150m holds | $297m holds |
| 18.3% | -$580m fails | -$472m fails | -$358m fails | -$237m fails | -$109m fails | $25m holds | $167m holds | $317m holds | $475m holds |
| 19.5% | -$477m fails | -$361m fails | -$239m fails | -$109m fails | $27m holds | $171m holds | $324m holds | $484m holds | $653m holds |
| 20.8% | -$373m fails | -$250m fails | -$119m fails | $18m holds | $164m holds | $318m holds | $480m holds | $651m holds | $831m holds |
| 22.0% | -$269m fails | -$139m fails | -$0m fails | $146m holds | $301m holds | $464m holds | $636m holds | $818m holds | $1,009m holds |
| terminal growth \ WACC | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | $842m holds | $421m holds | $98m holds | -$158m fails | -$365m fails | -$537m fails | -$681m fails | -$804m fails | -$910m fails |
| 0.9% | $968m holds | $504m holds | $154m holds | -$120m fails | -$339m fails | -$519m fails | -$670m fails | -$797m fails | -$906m fails |
| 1.3% | $1,116m holds | $598m holds | $216m holds | -$78m fails | -$311m fails | -$500m fails | -$657m fails | -$789m fails | -$901m fails |
| 1.6% | $1,292m holds | $708m holds | $286m holds | -$32m fails | -$280m fails | -$480m fails | -$644m fails | -$780m fails | -$896m fails |
| 2.0% | $1,505m holds | $835m holds | $367m holds | $20m holds | -$246m fails | -$458m fails | -$629m fails | -$771m fails | -$891m fails |
| 2.4% | $1,768m holds | $987m holds | $459m holds | $79m holds | -$208m fails | -$433m fails | -$614m fails | -$762m fails | -$886m fails |
| 2.8% | $2,101m holds | $1,170m holds | $568m holds | $146m holds | -$166m fails | -$406m fails | -$597m fails | -$752m fails | -$881m fails |
| 3.1% | $2,538m holds | $1,397m holds | $697m holds | $223m holds | -$119m fails | -$377m fails | -$579m fails | -$742m fails | -$875m fails |
| 3.5% | $3,137m holds | $1,684m holds | $852m holds | $313m holds | -$64m fails | -$344m fails | -$559m fails | -$730m fails | -$869m fails |
Terminal share of value
75.2%
$1,500.1m of $1,995.3m
Terminal reinvestment
$29.3m
Terminal NOPAT × 2.0% ÷ 12.0%
Jump from year five
-$3.2m
Shown, not smoothed
The WACC against terminal growth table above is the terminal-value stress test. Combinations where WACC is at or below terminal growth are reported as unsupported rather than shown as a very large number.
Measured as the enterprise-value swing across the disclosed perturbation range below. This is a sensitivity ranking over ranges chosen here; it is not a causal importance measure.
| Assumption | Range tested | Enterprise value swing |
|---|---|---|
| Year-five operating margin | 14.0% to 20.0% | $656.4m |
| WACC | 7.5% to 9.5% | $643.8m |
| Constant annual revenue growth | 2.0% to 8.0% | $488.3m |
| Terminal growth | 1.0% to 3.0% | $195.1m |
| Capex as a share of revenue | 2.6% to 6.6% | $192.3m |
The most consequential uncertain assumption here is year-five operating margin. The evidence that would most improve this analysis is whatever pins that down: a disclosed operating metric, a segment breakdown, or a stated capital plan. Nothing in this app can supply it for you.